Match intelligence

Academico de Viseu FC — Santa Clara Azores: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026

League: Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Academico de Viseu FC0
:
1Santa Clara Azores
Locked signal X2 Probability 69.6% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 30.4% Home win Academico de Viseu FC
X 31.5% Draw
W2 38.1% Away win Santa Clara Azores
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X269.6%
Both teams to score
Yes50.2%
Totals 2.5
Under57.4%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X61.9%
1268.5%
X269.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.2% / 49.8%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 88.9% / 11.1%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 70.7% / 29.3%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 42.6% / 57.4%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 21.8% / 78.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 9.4% / 90.6%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 3.5% / 96.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Academico de Viseu FC × Santa Clara Azores
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 11.1%
0:1 9.8%
0:2 7.5%
0:3 3.2%
0:4 1.0%
0:5 0.3%
1
1:0 8.4%
1:1 14.9%
1:2 8.3%
1:3 3.5%
1:4 1.1%
1:5 0.3%
2
2:0 5.7%
2:1 7.3%
2:2 4.6%
2:3 2.0%
2:4 0.6%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 2.1%
3:1 2.7%
3:2 1.7%
3:3 0.7%
3:4 0.2%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.6%
4:1 0.7%
4:2 0.5%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.2%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.9%
0:011.1%
0:19.8%
1:08.4%
1:28.3%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Academico de Viseu FC and Santa Clara Azores meet in a Liga Portugal fixture that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. The moderate confidence level suggests that the match could be shaped by small details rather than a dominant performance from either team.

The scoring outlook is medium, so the game may develop at a measured pace while still offering opportunities at both ends. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making the attacking balance another uncertain aspect of the matchup. A draw stands out as a plausible scenario, although Santa Clara Azores have a slight edge in the broader market signal. Academico de Viseu FC should remain competitive, and the most likely paths include a close contest with limited separation on the scoreboard.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Top-flight football returns to Viseu after 37 years

Estádio do Fontelo hosts a Portuguese top-flight match for the first time in 37 years. Newly promoted Académico de Viseu started their league campaign with a 2-2 away draw against Benfica.

Availability

Académico de Viseu squad absentees

Ahead of the match against Santa Clara, Académico de Viseu head coach Bruno Pinheiro remains without team captain Luís Silva and defender Gustavo Costa.

Schedule

High-scoring draws for both sides in opener

Both teams opened their Liga Portugal campaign with 2-2 draws, as Académico de Viseu drew away against Benfica and Santa Clara drew against Nacional.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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