Rio Ave FC — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 29.7% |
| 12 | 80.7% | |
| X2 | 89.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.4% / 20.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Rio Ave FC
16th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Casa Pia 1:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:4
- 03.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 25.04.2026 away Guimaraes 0:2
FC Porto
2nd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Alverca 2:0
- 16.05.2026 home Santa Clara 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away AVS 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
- 26.04.2026 away Estrela 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.02.2026 FC Porto 1:0 Rio Ave FC
- 19.09.2025 Rio Ave FC 0:3 FC Porto
- 03.02.2025 Rio Ave FC 2:2 FC Porto
- 24.08.2024 FC Porto 2:0 Rio Ave FC
- 03.02.2024 FC Porto 0:0 Rio Ave FC
- 28.08.2023 Rio Ave FC 1:2 FC Porto
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Porto have the clearer position in this Liga Portugal fixture, with the available assessment giving them a distinct strength advantage over Rio Ave FC. The confidence in that view is moderate rather than decisive, so the match should still be approached with some caution. Rio Ave FC will need to limit the visitors’ opportunities and keep the contest controlled if they are to challenge that expectation.
The scoring outlook points towards a medium-scoring game, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That suggests the match may depend on how effectively Rio Ave FC manage FC Porto’s attacking threat and whether the visitors can turn their overall edge into sustained pressure. The prevailing signal favours FC Porto, but the moderate confidence leaves room for a competitive performance from Rio Ave FC.
What matters before kick-off
Matchday 2 Context
FC Porto began their league campaign with a 2-0 victory against FC Alverca, while Rio Ave started the season with a 1-0 away defeat to Gil Vicente.
Historical Head-to-Head
In their previous 10 head-to-head encounters, FC Porto have claimed 7 victories over Rio Ave, alongside 2 draws and 1 Rio Ave win.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.