FC Alverca SAD — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 70.8% | |
| X2 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
FC Alverca SAD
18th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Famalicao 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Estoril 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Porto 0:1
- 24.04.2026 home Arouca 2:1
Estrela Amadora
6th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
- 11.05.2026 home Famalicao 0:0
- 02.05.2026 away Moreirense 2:3
- 26.04.2026 home Porto 1:2
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 31.01.2026 FC Alverca SAD 1:1 Estrela Amadora
- 25.08.2025 Estrela Amadora 2:2 FC Alverca SAD
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Alverca SAD hold a slight edge over Estrela Amadora in this Liga Portugal meeting, with the overall assessment leaning towards the hosts avoiding defeat. The confidence in that reading is high, although the advantage is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw. The market signal also supports a home win or draw as the most appropriate broad outcome.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring rather than an especially open contest. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, making that aspect close to an even call. The likely score patterns point towards a tight game, with a draw and a narrow FC Alverca SAD victory both consistent with the assessment. Estrela Amadora remain competitive in the outlook, but the balance gives the hosts the stronger position overall.
What matters before kick-off
Opening round results
FC Alverca SAD suffered a 2-0 defeat away against Porto in their Liga Portugal opening fixture. Estrela Amadora started their league campaign with a 2-2 draw against Sporting Lisbon.
New head coaches for both teams
Both clubs entered the new season with new head coaches in charge, with Sérgio Ferreira taking over at FC Alverca SAD and Pepa leading Estrela Amadora.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.