SC Braga — Gil Vicente Barcelos: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.5% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.4% / 22.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.0% / 85.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.4% / 93.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
SC Braga
10th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Moreirense 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 11.05.2026 away Benfica 2:2
- 03.05.2026 home Estoril 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Santa Clara 1:2
Gil Vicente Barcelos
6th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:3
- 11.05.2026 home Arouca 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away Rio Ave 0:0
- 27.04.2026 home Casa Pia 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.02.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:1 SC Braga
- 14.09.2025 SC Braga 0:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 09.02.2025 SC Braga 2:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 01.09.2024 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:0 SC Braga
- 16.03.2024 SC Braga 2:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 28.10.2023 Gil Vicente Barcelos 3:3 SC Braga
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Braga enter this Liga Portugal fixture with a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage over Gil Vicente Barcelos. The available assessment points to the home side being clearly stronger, but the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should still be approached with some caution. SC Braga are expected to control more of the game and have the stronger platform from which to create chances, particularly with home advantage in their favour.
The scoring outlook is medium, indicating a match that may produce a limited but meaningful number of goals rather than an open contest. The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so Gil Vicente Barcelos cannot be discounted in the attacking phases even if SC Braga remain the more convincing side overall. The most representative scorelines are 2:0, 1:1 and 1:0, reflecting a narrow range between a controlled home win and a closely contested draw.
What matters before kick-off
Goalkeeper Lukáš Horníček transfer
On August 3, 2026, SC Braga primary goalkeeper Lukáš Horníček transferred to English club Newcastle United, signing a five-year deal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.