FC Famalicao — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.1% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 44.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.6% / 26.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
FC Famalicao
13th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.08.2026 away Estoril 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
- 11.05.2026 away Estrela 0:0
- 02.05.2026 home Benfica 2:2
- 26.04.2026 away Estoril 1:0
Maritimo Madeira
5th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Casa Pia 1:0
- 27.05.2023 away Estoril 1:3
- 19.05.2023 home Vizela 1:0
- 13.05.2023 away Sp Lisbon 1:2
- 07.05.2023 home Rio Ave 2:2
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.04.2023 FC Famalicao 3:2 Maritimo Madeira
- 06.11.2022 Maritimo Madeira 0:0 FC Famalicao
- 20.02.2022 Maritimo Madeira 0:1 FC Famalicao
- 18.09.2021 FC Famalicao 0:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 21.03.2021 Maritimo Madeira 0:4 FC Famalicao
- 07.11.2020 FC Famalicao 2:1 Maritimo Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Famalicao have a slight edge over Maritimo Madeira in this Liga Portugal meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment favours the hosts, but the balance between the teams remains uncertain and the game could develop in several different ways.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0 identified as the most likely scorelines. That range suggests FC Famalicao may have enough control to keep the match narrow, while Maritimo Madeira remain capable of contributing to the result. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the strongest expectation. Overall, the home side holds the more favourable position, but the limited confidence makes a tight match the clearest reading.
What matters before kick-off
Famalicao opening result
Famalicao opened their 2026–27 Primeira Liga campaign with a 1-1 away draw against Estoril Praia.
Maritimo opening result
Newly promoted Maritimo started their top-flight return with a 1-0 home victory over Casa Pia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.