Sporting CP — LASK Linz: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.8% |
| 12 | 83.8% | |
| X2 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.4% / 37.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.2% / 79.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.20 → now 1.33 |
| X | was 7.50 → now 5.50 |
| W2 | was 15.00 → now 8.50 |
Match preview
Sporting CP enter this UEFA Champions League fixture against LASK Linz as the clearly stronger side, with the balance of the matchup pointing towards a home victory. The hosts are well positioned to take control of the contest, and the overall outlook favours Sporting CP rather than a closely contested encounter. LASK Linz will need to find ways to disrupt the home side’s rhythm and remain organised under pressure if they are to make the game more competitive.
The broader expectation is for a match with several goals, suggesting that Sporting CP have the potential to turn their advantage into a convincing performance. Scores such as 3-0 or 2-0 reflect the possibility of the hosts controlling proceedings and limiting LASK Linz’s opportunities, while a 3-1 result would indicate that the visitors could still contribute offensively. However, whether both teams find the net remains uncertain, so a high-scoring contest does not necessarily imply goals at both ends.
Overall, Sporting CP deserve to be viewed as the stronger team, with home advantage reinforcing an already favourable assessment. LASK Linz face a difficult challenge, and their ability to resist sustained pressure will be important in determining how competitive the match remains.
What matters before kick-off
Recent form ahead of the match
Sporting CP defeated Lens 2-0 on matchday two of the Champions League and remain unbeaten across all competitions this season. Meanwhile, LASK beat Austria Lustenau 4-0 last weekend to end a five-match winless streak.
Squad availability updates
Sporting CP manager Rui Borges is without Zeno Debast and Rodrigo Zalazar for Wednesday's encounter. LASK will be missing George Bello and Moses Usor for their trip to Lisbon.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.