Inter Milano — FC Shakhtar Donetsk: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.0% |
| 12 | 85.9% | |
| X2 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.3% / 81.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.20 → now 1.25 |
| X | was 6.50 → now 6.25 |
| W2 | was 13.00 → now 12.00 |
Match preview
Inter Milano are clearly stronger than FC Shakhtar Donetsk ahead of their UEFA Champions League meeting, with the balance of the contest pointing towards the home side. Inter Milano have the stronger overall outlook and should be well placed to dictate the tempo, control possession and create opportunities in attacking areas. FC Shakhtar Donetsk face a difficult challenge against opponents who appear to have a clear advantage, making defensive organisation and efficient use of their own chances important to their prospects.
The match also carries the potential for an open, high-scoring contest. Inter Milano have a credible path to victory through sustained attacking pressure, and a result with multiple goals looks more plausible than a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter. However, the possibility of FC Shakhtar Donetsk finding the net remains uncertain, so the hosts' advantage should not automatically be interpreted as a prediction that both teams will score. A controlled home performance could limit the visitors' opportunities, while a more open game would give them greater scope to contribute offensively.
Overall, Inter Milano are the clear favourites on the available assessment, with a home win the strongest reading of the matchup. FC Shakhtar Donetsk would need to make the most of their opportunities to challenge that advantage, while Inter Milano will look to translate their superior position into an effective attacking display.
What matters before kick-off
Lautaro Martínez unavailable
Inter captain Lautaro Martínez misses the match against Shakhtar Donetsk due to a thigh injury.
Inter's Champions League start
Inter entered matchday three of the Champions League league phase seeking their first points, having lost their opening two matches to Real Madrid (2-1) and Club Brugge (4-3).
Head-to-head history
Inter remain undefeated in all seven previous encounters against Shakhtar Donetsk, with three wins and four draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.