Bayern Munich — Arsenal FC: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.6% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 61.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 21.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home RB Leipzig 6:1
- 10.10.2026 away Augsburg 2:2
- 18.09.2026 home Union Berlin 7:0
- 13.09.2026 away Elversberg 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away Schalke 04 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Leeds 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.11.2025 Arsenal 3:1 Bayern München
- 17.04.2024 Bayern Munich 1:0 Arsenal
- 09.04.2024 Arsenal 2:2 Bayern Munich
- 18.07.2019 Arsenal 2:1 Bayern Munich
- 19.07.2017 Bayern Munich 1:1 Arsenal
- 07.03.2017 Arsenal 1:5 Bayern Munich
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.05 → now 2.45 |
| X | was 3.80 → now 3.50 |
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 2.75 |
Match preview
Bayern Munich enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with Arsenal FC in strong recent form, having recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches without a defeat. Their attacking output has been particularly impressive, with 17 goals scored and only four conceded. This combination of consistent results and defensive solidity gives Bayern Munich a slight edge at home, although Arsenal FC arrive with an equally compelling case for a competitive contest.
Arsenal FC have won four of their last five matches, suffering just one defeat, and have conceded five goals while scoring seven. Their recent record suggests a team capable of securing results consistently, even if their scoring numbers are more modest than those of Bayern Munich. The head-to-head history also points towards a closely balanced encounter: across six meetings, both sides have won twice and drawn twice. Both teams scored in five of those matches, while four featured more than two goals. Arsenal's 3-1 victory over Bayern München in their most recent meeting adds another dimension to the contest.
The overall expectation is a competitive, potentially high-scoring match in which both teams have opportunities to find the net. Bayern Munich hold a moderate advantage, but Arsenal FC have sufficient recent form to make this a closely contested fixture rather than a one-sided affair.
What matters before kick-off
Kompany battling illness as Musiala remains sidelined
Bayern Munich head coach Vincent Kompany is a doubt for the match after missing final preparations due to a viral infection. Midfielder Jamal Musiala also remains sidelined with a thigh injury.
Olise unavailable through suspension
Bayern Munich winger Michael Olise is suspended for the encounter against Arsenal following his red card in the previous Champions League game against Viking FK.
Bayern's strong home record against Arsenal
Bayern Munich have won five of their seven home encounters against Arsenal in the Champions League, including each of the last three played in Munich.
Arsenal's perfect start in Europe
Arsenal enter the match having won both of their opening Champions League games this season without conceding a goal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.