Real Madrid — RB Leipzig: Win probabilities, 21.10.2026

Real Madrid enter this UEFA Champions League fixture as the clearly stronger side, supported by a more consistent recent record and a productive attack. They have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals and conceding six. That combination points to a team capable of creating sustained attacking pressure while remaining reasonably effective defensively. Their recent results provide a solid foundation for a positive performance at home, although the defeat in that sequence shows that their form has not been flawless.

RB Leipzig present a potentially dangerous attacking threat but arrive with a less convincing run of results. They have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals while conceding 11. Their scoring output suggests they can contribute to an open contest, but the number of goals conceded raises questions about their ability to contain a strong opponent. Real Madrid will have reason to target those defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if they establish control early.

The previous meeting between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw in 2024, while their four head-to-head encounters have produced two Real Madrid wins, one draw and one RB Leipzig victory. That history offers some resistance to an overly one-sided interpretation, but the current form favours the hosts. Real Madrid have the stronger overall profile, and a high-scoring match with opportunities for both teams is a reasonable expectation.