Southampton FC — Portsmouth FC: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 78.8% | |
| X2 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.6% / 15.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.8% / 59.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.8% / 77.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Southampton FC
4th place · 14 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Wrexham 1:2
- 12.09.2026 home Bristol City 4:1
- 08.09.2026 home Swansea 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Lincoln 1:1
- 01.09.2026 away Birmingham 1:1
Portsmouth FC
19th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Blackburn 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Charlton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Cardiff 2:0
- 01.09.2026 home Derby 0:2
- 29.08.2026 away Bristol City 1:2
This season: Southampton FC at home vs Portsmouth FC away
| Metric | Southampton FC · at home | Portsmouth FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 1–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.75 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.11 | 0.99 |
| xG against per match | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.25 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 5.75 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 25.01.2026 Portsmouth FC 1:1 Southampton FC
- 14.09.2025 Southampton FC 0:0 Portsmouth FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Southampton FC enter this Championship meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over Portsmouth FC, although the confidence level is moderate rather than emphatic. The available assessment points toward Southampton FC as the stronger side, suggesting that the hosts may have the greater overall influence on the match. At the same time, the moderate confidence indicates that this edge should be viewed with appropriate caution rather than as a decisive expectation.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring described as a coin flip. That leaves room for different match patterns, including a controlled Southampton FC performance or a more competitive contest involving Portsmouth FC. The listed likely scorelines range from a balanced draw to home victories, reinforcing the view that Southampton FC have the stronger position while Portsmouth FC remain capable of affecting the game. Overall, the analytical signal favors the hosts, but the available information does not support treating the outcome as predetermined.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.