Seattle Sounders — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 29.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.0% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.1% / 57.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.9% / 76.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 29.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:2
- 17.08.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:2
- 02.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Orlando City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 02.08.2026 home Charlotte 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away New York City 1:3
This season: Seattle Sounders at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | Seattle Sounders · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–4 | 4–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.56 | 1.70 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.78 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 30.06.2024 Seattle Sounders 2:1 Chicago Fire
- 17.07.2022 Chicago Fire 1:0 Seattle Sounders
- 14.07.2020 Chicago Fire 2:1 Seattle Sounders
- 01.03.2020 Seattle Sounders 2:1 Chicago Fire
- 16.03.2019 Chicago Fire 2:4 Seattle Sounders
- 24.06.2018 Seattle Sounders 1:1 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Seattle Sounders and Chicago Fire appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the visitors no decisive advantage, with moderate confidence pointing toward a competitive contest rather than a clear favourite. That balance should make the tactical battle important, particularly in how each side manages transitions and responds when possession changes.
The scoring outlook is more open. Both teams are likely to score, suggesting that defensive control may be difficult to maintain for the full match. Seattle Sounders will have home advantage, while Chicago Fire can approach the game knowing that an attacking contribution could be enough to keep them in contention. Overall, this looks like a high-scoring fixture in which neither side stands clearly above the other, and the final outcome may depend on efficiency in the decisive moments.
What matters before kick-off
Dejan Joveljić acquisition
Seattle Sounders acquired Serbian forward Dejan Joveljić from Sporting Kansas City for $6 million, making him available to feature against Chicago Fire.
Chicago Fire schedule and recent result
Chicago Fire resume their MLS road trip coming off a 2-1 defeat to Mexican side C.F. Monterrey in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals on Tuesday.
Seattle Sounders availability issues
Seattle will be without Pedro de la Vega, Jesús Ferreira, Yeimar Gómez Andrade, Nikola Petković and Jackson Ragen due to injury, while Peter Kingston serves a suspension.
Head-to-head record in Seattle
Chicago Fire have never won an away match against Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field, going winless across eight all-time visits.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.