Match intelligence

SE Palmeiras SP — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026

League: Brasileiro Serie A (Brazil) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
SE Palmeiras SP4
:
1SC Corinthians SP
Locked signal W1 Probability 60.9% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 60.9% Home win SE Palmeiras SP
X 25.2% Draw
W2 13.9% Away win SC Corinthians SP
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X86.1%
Both teams to score
No53.7%
Totals 2.5
Under52.2%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X86.1%
1274.8%
X239.1%
Both teams to scoreYes/No46.3% / 53.7%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 91.0% / 9.0%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 74.4% / 25.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 47.8% / 52.2%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 26.1% / 73.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 12.0% / 88.0%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 4.8% / 95.2%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

SE Palmeiras SP × SC Corinthians SP
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 9.0%
0:1 4.4%
0:2 2.2%
0:3 0.6%
0:4 0.1%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 12.3%
1:1 11.9%
1:2 4.0%
1:3 1.0%
1:4 0.2%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 12.5%
2:1 9.6%
2:2 3.7%
2:3 0.9%
2:4 0.2%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 7.5%
3:1 5.8%
3:2 2.2%
3:3 0.6%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 3.4%
4:1 2.6%
4:2 1.0%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.0%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 1.2%
5:1 1.0%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:012.5%
1:012.3%
1:111.9%
2:19.6%
0:09.0%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026

SE Palmeiras SP

2nd place · 60 pts after 29

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 09.10.2026 home Bahia 1:0
  • 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
  • 12.09.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
  • 06.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
  • 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1

SC Corinthians SP

16th place · 32 pts after 29

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 07.10.2026 away Internacional 1:2
  • 20.09.2026 home Fluminense 1:3
  • 13.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
  • 06.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:2
  • 30.08.2026 home Santos 0:1

This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs SC Corinthians SP away

Metric SE Palmeiras SP · at home SC Corinthians SP · away
Matches1414
W–D–L10–3–13–5–6
Goals scored per match1.711.07
Goals conceded per match0.641.29
Over 2.5 goals43%50%
Both teams scored57%71%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

SE Palmeiras SP wins2
Draws3
SC Corinthians SP wins1
Goals per match1.33
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
  • 12.04.2026 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
  • 31.08.2025 SC Corinthians SP 1:1 SE Palmeiras SP
  • 12.04.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 SC Corinthians SP
  • 04.11.2024 SC Corinthians SP 2:0 SE Palmeiras SP
  • 02.07.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 SC Corinthians SP
  • 03.09.2023 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Palmeiras SP appear to have a clear advantage over SC Corinthians SP ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The assessment favours the hosts, although confidence remains moderate, so the expected difference in strength should be treated with some caution. SE Palmeiras SP are the more convincing side on the available indicators, with a home win representing the leading outcome. However, SC Corinthians SP remain capable of making the contest competitive, and the match should not be viewed as a foregone conclusion.

The scoring outlook points towards a moderately open game rather than an exceptionally high-scoring encounter. A controlled performance from SE Palmeiras SP could lead to a narrow victory, with a clean sheet a plausible scenario. At the same time, a draw remains a credible alternative, and whether both teams find the net is difficult to distinguish clearly. The most consistent reading is that SE Palmeiras SP hold the advantage, while the overall goal total is likely to remain within a moderate range. SC Corinthians SP will need to make effective use of their opportunities to challenge the hosts, but the balance of the available assessment favours SE Palmeiras SP.

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