SE Palmeiras SP — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.1% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.1% / 73.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 60 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Bahia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
- 06.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Mirassol 1:1
SC Corinthians SP
16th place · 32 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 away Internacional 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Fluminense 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Santos 0:1
This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs SC Corinthians SP away
| Metric | SE Palmeiras SP · at home | SC Corinthians SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 10–3–1 | 3–5–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 1.07 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.64 | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 31.08.2025 SC Corinthians SP 1:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 12.04.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 04.11.2024 SC Corinthians SP 2:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 02.07.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 03.09.2023 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Palmeiras SP appear to have a clear advantage over SC Corinthians SP ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The assessment favours the hosts, although confidence remains moderate, so the expected difference in strength should be treated with some caution. SE Palmeiras SP are the more convincing side on the available indicators, with a home win representing the leading outcome. However, SC Corinthians SP remain capable of making the contest competitive, and the match should not be viewed as a foregone conclusion.
The scoring outlook points towards a moderately open game rather than an exceptionally high-scoring encounter. A controlled performance from SE Palmeiras SP could lead to a narrow victory, with a clean sheet a plausible scenario. At the same time, a draw remains a credible alternative, and whether both teams find the net is difficult to distinguish clearly. The most consistent reading is that SE Palmeiras SP hold the advantage, while the overall goal total is likely to remain within a moderate range. SC Corinthians SP will need to make effective use of their opportunities to challenge the hosts, but the balance of the available assessment favours SE Palmeiras SP.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.
