Sao Paulo FC SP — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
11th place · 36 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Cruzeiro 0:2
- 03.10.2026 home Santos 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Internacional 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Palmeiras 0:2
- 05.09.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:0
EC Vitoria BA
12th place · 36 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 20.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Mirassol 2:2
- 08.09.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs EC Vitoria BA away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | EC Vitoria BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–3 | 0–5–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.86 | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 EC Vitoria BA 2:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 07.12.2025 EC Vitoria BA 1:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 09.08.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 25.08.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 05.05.2024 EC Vitoria BA 1:3 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 26.10.2018 EC Vitoria BA 0:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sao Paulo FC SP host EC Vitoria BA in a Brasileiro Serie A fixture where the table offers little separation: both sides sit on 36 points after 29 rounds, with Sao Paulo FC SP eleventh and EC Vitoria BA just behind them in twelfth. On paper the sides look close, but the context of this specific match tilts the balance toward the hosts, giving them a slight edge rather than any firm advantage.
The clearest signal comes from the venue splits. Sao Paulo FC SP have been convincing at home this season, winning 8 of their 14 matches and scoring 22 goals in front of their own crowd. EC Vitoria BA, by contrast, have struggled badly on the road, failing to win any of their 14 away games, drawing 5 and losing 9 while conceding 30 goals. The head-to-head record also leans the hosts' way, with 4 wins from the last 6 meetings.
A note of caution tempers the picture: the most recent encounter saw EC Vitoria BA win 2-0, and Sao Paulo FC SP arrive on uneven form with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five. The match looks medium-scoring, both teams finding the net is close to a coin flip, and the overall confidence in a home-leaning outcome remains low.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.