CR Flamengo RJ — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.5% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.5% / 82.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
1st place · 61 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bragantino 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Corinthians 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Remo 1:0
- 02.09.2026 home Mirassol 2:0
Fluminense FC RJ
3rd place · 51 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Coritiba 4:0
- 20.09.2026 away Corinthians 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:3
- 06.09.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 3:3
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs Fluminense FC RJ away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | Fluminense FC RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 10–3–1 | 3–6–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.71 | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 79% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Fluminense FC RJ 1:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 20.11.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 2:1 CR Flamengo RJ
- 20.07.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 18.10.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 0:2 Fluminense FC RJ
- 23.06.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 0:1 CR Flamengo RJ
- 11.11.2023 CR Flamengo RJ 1:1 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Serie A fixture against Fluminense FC RJ with a clear overall advantage, although the moderate confidence level suggests some caution is warranted. The hosts are assessed as the stronger side, making a home win the leading outcome. Their advantage is reflected in the most plausible scorelines, which point towards a controlled performance rather than an especially open contest. However, the assessment does not rule out resistance from the visitors, particularly if they can remain organised and make the most of their opportunities.
A medium-scoring match is the central expectation, with the suggested results ranging from a narrow home victory to a more comfortable margin. A low-scoring win for CR Flamengo RJ is a realistic scenario, while a result featuring goals from both teams also remains possible. The likelihood of both sides scoring is finely balanced, so the match may depend on how effectively each team converts its chances. Overall, CR Flamengo RJ have the stronger outlook heading into this encounter, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for a competitive match and alternative outcomes.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.