Atletico Mineiro MG — Santos FC SP: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.4% |
| 12 | 72.3% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.7% / 43.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.3% / 65.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
7th place · 44 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Athletico-PR 2:2
- 03.10.2026 home Bragantino 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Fluminense 3:1
- 05.09.2026 away Sao Paulo 0:2
Santos FC SP
8th place · 42 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:2
- 03.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Remo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Internacional 3:2
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Santos FC SP away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Santos FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–5–1 | 5–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.14 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 79% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 79% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Santos FC SP 1:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 14.09.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:1 Santos FC SP
- 17.04.2025 Santos FC SP 2:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 27.08.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:0 Santos FC SP
- 23.04.2023 Santos FC SP 0:0 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 06.10.2022 Santos FC SP 1:2 Atletico Mineiro MG
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting on October 11. The assessment favors the hosts, with a high level of confidence in the underlying lean, although that does not make a home victory inevitable. Atletico Mineiro MG will look to make their home advantage count, while Santos FC SP remain capable of keeping the contest competitive. The balance of the matchup points toward a narrow advantage rather than a clear separation between the sides.
A medium-scoring game is the most plausible overall expectation, with the possibility of goals at both ends remaining uncertain. The leading scoreline scenarios suggest a closely contested match, with a draw and a narrow home win both fitting the assessment. A one-goal margin could be enough to decide the contest, but the available indicators also leave room for the teams to share the points. Atletico Mineiro MG have the stronger overall outlook, yet Santos FC SP may still make this an evenly fought encounter. The key expectation is a competitive match in which the hosts hold a modest advantage without a decisive outcome being established in advance.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.