SE Palmeiras SP — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.8% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.7% / 46.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
SE Palmeiras SP
2nd place · 66 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Athletico-PR 2:0
- 11.10.2026 home Corinthians 4:1
- 09.10.2026 home Bahia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Gremio 0:0
- 12.09.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
Red Bull Bragantino SP
10th place · 41 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 away Remo 1:1
- 13.10.2026 home Cruzeiro 4:2
- 07.10.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 03.10.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
This season: SE Palmeiras SP at home vs Red Bull Bragantino SP away
| Metric | SE Palmeiras SP · at home | Red Bull Bragantino SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 16 |
| W–D–L | 11–3–1 | 4–5–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.87 | 0.94 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Red Bull Bragantino SP 0:1 SE Palmeiras SP
- 15.10.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 5:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 18.05.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 05.10.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 0:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 21.06.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 01.10.2023 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:1 SE Palmeiras SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SE Palmeiras SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture in stronger form than Red Bull Bragantino SP, with their recent performances pointing to a clear advantage for the hosts. Palmeiras have won four and drawn one of their last five matches, scoring nine goals and conceding just one. Their defensive consistency is particularly notable, providing a solid foundation for another positive performance. Sitting second in the league with 66 points from 31 matches, they also have a strong home record that reinforces their position as favourites.
Red Bull Bragantino SP, currently tenth with 41 points, have been less consistent, recording one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five outings. Their away performances have also been a relative weakness, with seven losses in 16 matches on the road this season. These figures suggest they may face a difficult task against a side that has regularly converted home advantage into results.
The head-to-head record further supports Palmeiras, who have won four of the last six meetings, including a 1-0 away victory in the most recent encounter in 2026. A moderate level of confidence is appropriate, with SE Palmeiras SP holding a clear overall edge. A medium-scoring contest looks plausible, although whether both teams find the net remains uncertain.
What matters before kick-off
Palmeiras suspensions and returns
Palmeiras defender Joaquin Piquerez and midfielder Andreas Pereira miss out due to suspensions. Meanwhile, Gustavo Gomez and Agustin Giay return to availability following their suspensions.
Palmeiras fresh off Copa Libertadores semi-final
Palmeiras enter this matchday 32 fixture following a penalty shoot-out triumph against Fluminense on Wednesday to advance to the Copa Libertadores final.
Palmeiras head-to-head unbeaten run
Palmeiras hold a seven-match unbeaten streak across all competitions against Red Bull Bragantino, recording five wins and two draws during that stretch.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.