Santos FC SP — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

Santos FC SP enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge, supported by a stronger recent run and the advantage of playing at home. They have won three of their last five matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 7, which points to a side capable of creating chances while remaining somewhat vulnerable defensively. Their home record is reasonably solid, with 6 wins and 5 draws from 15 matches, although 4 defeats show that their advantage on familiar ground is not overwhelming.

EC Bahia BA sit one place above Santos FC SP in the league standings, with 49 points compared with the hosts’ 45 after 31 matches. However, their recent form is less convincing, with three defeats in their last five games and only 4 goals scored during that spell. Their away record remains competitive, featuring 6 wins in 15 matches, so they have sufficient results on the road to make this a close contest. The league positions underline how evenly matched the teams are over the full season, despite their contrasting recent performances.

The head-to-head record also suggests a competitive encounter: three of their last six meetings ended level, including a 2-2 draw in their most recent meeting in 2026. A medium-scoring game looks plausible, with Santos FC SP holding a narrow overall advantage, but EC Bahia BA have enough quality to make a draw a realistic outcome.