Mirassol FC SP — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.2% / 23.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.9% / 50.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.3% / 86.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
Mirassol FC SP
14th place · 36 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Internacional 2:0
- 11.10.2026 away Bahia 0:1
- 07.10.2026 away Bragantino 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Botafogo RJ 2:0
- 13.09.2026 home Vitoria 2:2
Sao Paulo FC SP
9th place · 42 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.10.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 11.10.2026 home Vitoria 2:1
- 08.10.2026 away Cruzeiro 0:2
- 03.10.2026 home Santos 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Internacional 1:0
This season: Mirassol FC SP at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | Mirassol FC SP · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 7–5–4 | 2–3–10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.44 | 0.73 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.31 | 1.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 Mirassol FC SP
- 19.10.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 24.05.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 0:2 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.38 → now 2.25 |
| W2 | was 3.10 → now 3.25 |
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP head into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with Sao Paulo FC SP holding a slight edge, particularly because of their more reliable home performances. Mirassol FC SP have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last five matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 4. They sit 14th with 36 points after 31 games, but their home record offers encouragement: 7 wins and 5 draws from 16 matches suggest they can make this a competitive contest.
Sao Paulo FC SP occupy 9th place with 42 points, six more than their opponents, and have won 3 of their last five matches. However, their away form is a significant concern, with just 2 wins in 15 away games, alongside 3 draws and 10 defeats. That weakness gives Mirassol FC SP a reasonable opportunity to take control, although Sao Paulo FC SP have already beaten them 1-0 in their most recent meeting in 2026.
The overall balance points towards a closely contested match, with Mirassol FC SP enjoying a modest advantage through home conditions and the visitors' struggles on the road. A moderate-scoring game appears plausible, and a draw remains a realistic outcome. Both teams have reasons to expect opportunities, but neither has a decisive advantage across all aspects of the matchup.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results ahead of the fixture
Mirassol enter the match following a 2-0 home victory against Internacional in Round 31 of the Brasileirão. Meanwhile, São Paulo come off two consecutive wins against Vitória (2-1) and Vasco da Gama (1-0).
Head-to-head history between Mirassol and São Paulo
In official match history, São Paulo have 11 victories compared to 4 wins for Mirassol, alongside 4 draws. However, recent encounters have been balanced, with Mirassol winning three of the last five meetings between the two sides.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.