Chapecoense SC — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

Chapecoense SC face a difficult challenge against Fluminense FC RJ in Brasileiro Serie A, with the visitors holding a clear overall advantage. Chapecoense SC sit 20th in the table with 18 points from 30 matches, and their recent form highlights the scale of their problems. They have lost four of their last five games, drawing once and scoring only three goals while conceding 12. Their home record offers little reassurance, with seven defeats in 14 matches and 33 goals conceded, suggesting that defensive vulnerabilities could again prove costly.

Fluminense FC RJ arrive in a considerably stronger league position, sitting fourth with 51 points from 31 matches. Although their recent results have been inconsistent, with two wins and three defeats in their last five outings, they have scored nine goals in that sequence. The head-to-head record also favours the visitors, who have won four of the last six meetings, with the other two ending in draws. Their most recent encounter finished 2-1 in favour of Fluminense FC RJ. However, their away record of three wins, six draws and six losses indicates that taking control on the road is not always straightforward.

Overall, Fluminense FC RJ have the stronger case, while Chapecoense SC will need a substantial improvement defensively to challenge them. A moderately scoring contest appears plausible, with a draw remaining a realistic alternative.