EC Vitoria BA — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.9% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.3% / 69.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.10.2026
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 37 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.10.2026 away Corinthians 1:1
- 11.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:2
- 08.10.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 20.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Mirassol 2:2
CA Paranaense PR
4th place · 53 pts after 31Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 home Palmeiras 0:2
- 12.10.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:1
- 09.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Coritiba 3:3
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 10–1–4 | 6–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 CA Paranaense PR 3:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 02.11.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 30.06.2024 EC Vitoria BA 0:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 17.11.2018 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 CA Paranaense PR
- 29.07.2018 CA Paranaense PR 4:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 19.10.2017 EC Vitoria BA 2:3 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA face CA Paranaense PR in the Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that looks evenly matched overall, despite the gap between them in the league table. EC Vitoria BA sit 13th with 37 points from 31 matches, while CA Paranaense PR are fourth with 53 points. The visitors have also shown slightly better recent form, recording two wins and two draws in their last five matches, compared with one win, two draws and two defeats for the hosts. These contrasting indicators make the matchup more competitive than the standings alone might suggest.
EC Vitoria BA have a strong home record, winning 10 of their 15 league matches on their own ground and scoring 22 goals while conceding 12. That home advantage gives them a credible platform, but CA Paranaense PR have enough attacking potential to pose a serious challenge. The visitors have scored 22 goals in 15 away matches, although their record of six wins, three draws and six losses suggests some inconsistency on the road. Head-to-head history favors CA Paranaense PR, who have won five of the last six meetings, including a 3-1 victory in 2026. A moderately open game is plausible, with neither side clearly dominant and a draw or narrow victory for either team remaining realistic outcomes.
What matters before kick-off
Athletico Paranaense injury updates
Defender Arthur Dias misses out due to a right thigh injury, joining Kerwin Vargas, Gastón Benavídez, and Kaio Dantas on the sidelines.
Head-to-head history between Vitória and Athletico Paranaense
The two sides have faced each other 46 times, with Athletico Paranaense recording 21 victories, Vitória claiming 18, and 7 matches ending in a draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.