SC Heerenveen — PEC Zwolle: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 79.8% | |
| X2 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.1% / 36.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
SC Heerenveen
7th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 09.08.2026 home Twente 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Ajax 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away NAC Breda 0:2
- 03.05.2026 away Volendam 2:0
PEC Zwolle
15th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Twente 1:3
- 09.08.2026 home Ajax 0:2
- 17.05.2026 home Feyenoord 0:2
- 10.05.2026 away For Sittard 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Heracles 1:0
This season: SC Heerenveen at home vs PEC Zwolle away
| Metric | SC Heerenveen · at home | PEC Zwolle · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.39 | 0.68 |
| xG against per match | 1.77 | 2.08 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 SC Heerenveen 4:2 PEC Zwolle
- 28.11.2025 PEC Zwolle 2:1 SC Heerenveen
- 16.02.2025 PEC Zwolle 1:1 SC Heerenveen
- 06.10.2024 SC Heerenveen 1:1 PEC Zwolle
- 03.03.2024 SC Heerenveen 2:0 PEC Zwolle
- 13.01.2024 PEC Zwolle 2:2 SC Heerenveen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Heerenveen enter this Eredivisie meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over PEC Zwolle. The assessment points toward a high-scoring contest, suggesting that the match could develop with an open rhythm rather than remain tightly controlled. SC Heerenveen are rated as the stronger side, but the moderate confidence level means that this advantage should be treated with some caution.
PEC Zwolle still have a credible attacking role in the outlook, with both teams likely to score. That makes the visitors relevant to the match pattern even though SC Heerenveen hold the more favourable overall position. The main signal is therefore a game in which chances may be created at both ends, with the home side better placed to turn that balance in their favour. The most plausible scorelines include a narrow SC Heerenveen win, a draw, or a controlled home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle squad updates
SC Heerenveen enter the match without injured defender Mats Egbring. PEC Zwolle are missing forward Younes Namli through injury and right-back Sherel Floranus due to suspension.
Recent Eredivisie form for both sides
SC Heerenveen collected four points from their opening two matches, beating FC Twente 1-0 and drawing 2-2 against Ajax. PEC Zwolle opened their campaign with consecutive losses against Ajax and FC Twente.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.