Fortuna Sittard — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 41.0% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 81.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Fortuna Sittard
4th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Cambuur 3:1
- 08.08.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Utrecht 0:2
- 10.05.2026 home Zwolle 3:2
- 03.05.2026 home Feyenoord 1:2
AZ Alkmaar
1st place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Utrecht 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home NAC Breda 3:3
- 10.05.2026 away Feyenoord 1:1
- 03.05.2026 home Twente 2:2
This season: Fortuna Sittard at home vs AZ Alkmaar away
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard · at home | AZ Alkmaar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.91 | 2.10 |
| xG against per match | 2.50 | 0.91 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.04.2026 AZ Alkmaar 2:0 Fortuna Sittard
- 21.12.2025 Fortuna Sittard 4:3 AZ Alkmaar
- 23.02.2025 AZ Alkmaar 1:0 Fortuna Sittard
- 06.10.2024 Fortuna Sittard 1:0 AZ Alkmaar
- 17.02.2024 Fortuna Sittard 1:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 01.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar 4:0 Fortuna Sittard
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fortuna Sittard host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie meeting on 22 August 2026. The available assessment points to a competitive match with a slight edge for AZ Alkmaar, although the moderate confidence suggests that the difference between the sides should not be overstated. Fortuna Sittard are expected to remain involved in the contest rather than simply defend for long periods.
The main signal is toward an open game with chances at both ends. Both teams are likely to score, while the overall scoring outlook is high, making a cautious, low-event approach less likely. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger outcome profile, but Fortuna Sittard retain enough attacking potential to make the match difficult to control throughout. Draw and narrow away-win scenarios both fit the assessment, with the balance leaning toward AZ Alkmaar without turning the fixture into a one-sided proposition.
What matters before kick-off
AZ's strong start
AZ started their Eredivisie campaign with two consecutive wins, defeating ADO Den Haag 2-0 and FC Utrecht 4-1.
Squad availability for both sides
Fortuna Sittard are without Kristoffer Peterson, Ivan Marquez and Sven Simons due to injury, while AZ are missing Jordy Clasie, Jizz Hornkamp and Denso Kasius.
Fortuna Sittard's opening results
Fortuna Sittard accumulated four points in their first two matches, drawing 2-2 with PSV before securing a 3-1 victory against Cambuur.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.