PSV Eindhoven — FC Groningen: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.6% |
| 12 | 84.8% | |
| X2 | 24.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 40.4% / 59.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 24.1% / 75.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
PSV Eindhoven
8th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Excelsior 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Twente 5:1
- 10.05.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 4:1
- 02.05.2026 away Ajax 2:2
FC Groningen
2nd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Den Haag 4:1
- 09.08.2026 home Utrecht 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Heracles 2:1
- 10.05.2026 home Nijmegen 2:1
- 02.05.2026 home Excelsior 2:3
This season: PSV Eindhoven at home vs FC Groningen away
| Metric | PSV Eindhoven · at home | FC Groningen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.30 | 3.20 |
| xG against per match | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.02.2026 FC Groningen 1:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 23.08.2025 PSV Eindhoven 4:2 FC Groningen
- 05.04.2025 FC Groningen 1:3 PSV Eindhoven
- 23.11.2024 PSV Eindhoven 5:0 FC Groningen
- 11.02.2023 PSV Eindhoven 6:0 FC Groningen
- 23.10.2022 FC Groningen 4:2 PSV Eindhoven
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
PSV Eindhoven enter this Eredivisie meeting as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving them a high-confidence edge over FC Groningen. The overall scoring outlook points to an open match, rather than a cautious contest, and PSV Eindhoven are expected to take the initiative through sustained attacking pressure. FC Groningen should still have opportunities to contribute, particularly if they can exploit spaces during transitions.
The projection also suggests that both teams are likely to score, making a one-sided defensive performance less likely than a match with several decisive moments. The most plausible score patterns favour PSV Eindhoven while allowing for a meaningful response from FC Groningen, with outcomes such as 3-1 or 2-1 fitting the broader assessment. A 3-0 result is another possibility if the hosts convert their chances efficiently and limit FC Groningen’s attacking threat.
What matters before kick-off
PSV squad availability
PSV host Groningen without striker Alassane Plea due to an injury setback, while Couhaib Driouech, Jerdy Schouten and Noah Fernandez are also sidelined.
FC Groningen injury update
FC Groningen enter the match with several players sidelined, including Oskar Zawada, Marco Rente, Tyrique Mercera, Yénio Holder and Ryan Metu.
Recent league results
FC Groningen started their Eredivisie campaign with back-to-back wins over FC Utrecht (2-1) and ADO Den Haag (4-1). PSV secured their first victory of the league season in their previous match, beating SBV Excelsior 2-1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.