SC Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
47.7%
Home win
SC Heerenveen
X
23.4%
Draw
W2
28.9%
Away win
NEC Nijmegen
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.6%
Both teams to score
Yes69.8%
Totals 2.5
Over69.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 52.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Goal distribution model
SC Heerenveen × NEC Nijmegen
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.7%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
3.3%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.5%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
6.8%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.4%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.7%
2:1
8.9%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
3.6%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
4.7%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.4%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
2:18.9%
2:26.9%
1:26.8%
3:16.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
SC Heerenveen
8th place · 15 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Den Haag 3:2
- 16.10.2026 home Excelsior 4:0
- 09.10.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 0:2
- 19.09.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 4:0
- 13.09.2026 home Telstar 0:0
NEC Nijmegen
10th place · 12 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Groningen 2:2
- 18.10.2026 home For Sittard 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Ajax 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Cambuur 0:3
This season: SC Heerenveen at home vs NEC Nijmegen away
| Metric | SC Heerenveen · at home | NEC Nijmegen · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 2–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.30 | 1.74 |
| xG against per match | 1.15 | 2.08 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.40 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
SC Heerenveen wins2
Draws2
NEC Nijmegen wins2
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 22.03.2026 NEC Nijmegen 2:2 SC Heerenveen
- 21.09.2025 SC Heerenveen 3:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 27.04.2025 SC Heerenveen 1:0 NEC Nijmegen
- 19.10.2024 NEC Nijmegen 3:0 SC Heerenveen
- 10.03.2024 NEC Nijmegen 2:0 SC Heerenveen
- 07.10.2023 SC Heerenveen 1:1 NEC Nijmegen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.83 → now 2.00 |
| W2 | was 3.60 → now 3.20 |
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