Ajax Amsterdam — AZ Alkmaar: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
55.5%
Home win
Ajax Amsterdam
X
21.3%
Draw
W2
23.1%
Away win
AZ Alkmaar
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1278.7%
Both teams to score
Yes68.9%
Totals 2.5
Over71.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.9% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Goal distribution model
Ajax Amsterdam × AZ Alkmaar
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.2%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
2.6%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.9%
1:1
8.7%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
2.8%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.1%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
4.8%
3:1
6.9%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.4%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.7%
4:1
3.9%
4:2
2.8%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.2%
5:1
1.8%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:19.1%
1:18.7%
3:16.9%
2:26.5%
2:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Ajax Amsterdam
2nd place · 21 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 18.10.2026 away Groningen 5:2
- 10.10.2026 home Nijmegen 1:1
- 19.09.2026 home Excelsior 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Willem II 5:1
AZ Alkmaar
5th place · 20 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Twente 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Cambuur 2:2
- 10.10.2026 away Feyenoord 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home Telstar 1:0
- 11.09.2026 home Willem II 1:1
This season: Ajax Amsterdam at home vs AZ Alkmaar away
| Metric | Ajax Amsterdam · at home | AZ Alkmaar · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–1 | 3–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xG for per match | 2.38 | 1.99 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 7.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Ajax Amsterdam wins0
Draws2
AZ Alkmaar wins4
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 08.02.2026 AZ Alkmaar 1:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 18.10.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 0:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 16.03.2025 Ajax Amsterdam 2:2 AZ Alkmaar
- 08.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar 2:1 Ajax Amsterdam
- 25.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar 2:0 Ajax Amsterdam
- 08.10.2023 Ajax Amsterdam 1:2 AZ Alkmaar
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.85 → now 1.73 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 3.50 → now 3.90 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.