PSV Eindhoven — Willem II Tilburg: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
92.1%
Home win
PSV Eindhoven
X
5.0%
Draw
W2
2.9%
Away win
Willem II Tilburg
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X97.1%
Both teams to score
Yes52.4%
Totals 2.5
Over87.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.1% |
| 12 | 95.0% | |
| X2 | 7.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 99.6% / 0.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
Goal distribution model
PSV Eindhoven × Willem II Tilburg
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
0.4%
0:1
0.8%
0:2
0.2%
0:3
0.1%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
3.2%
1:1
2.0%
1:2
0.9%
1:3
0.2%
1:4
0.0%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
6.1%
2:1
4.7%
2:2
1.8%
2:3
0.5%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
8.6%
3:1
6.6%
3:2
2.5%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
9.1%
4:1
6.9%
4:2
2.7%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
7.6%
5:1
5.9%
5:2
2.2%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
4:09.1%
3:08.6%
5:07.6%
4:16.9%
3:16.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
PSV Eindhoven
3rd place · 20 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Feyenoord 1:1
- 17.10.2026 away Den Haag 1:2
- 09.10.2026 home Heerenveen 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
Willem II Tilburg
18th place · 2 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Cambuur 1:6
- 17.10.2026 away Sparta Rotterdam 2:3
- 11.10.2026 away Utrecht 1:3
- 19.09.2026 home For Sittard 0:1
- 15.09.2026 away Ajax 1:5
This season: PSV Eindhoven at home vs Willem II Tilburg away
| Metric | PSV Eindhoven · at home | Willem II Tilburg · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–0 | 0–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| xG for per match | 2.82 | 1.16 |
| xG against per match | 1.43 | 2.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.20 | 2.60 |
| Corners per match | 7.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
PSV Eindhoven wins4
Draws1
Willem II Tilburg wins1
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 08.02.2025 PSV Eindhoven 1:1 Willem II Tilburg
- 28.09.2024 Willem II Tilburg 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 01.05.2022 PSV Eindhoven 4:2 Willem II Tilburg
- 25.09.2021 Willem II Tilburg 2:1 PSV Eindhoven
- 09.05.2021 Willem II Tilburg 0:2 PSV Eindhoven
- 08.11.2020 PSV Eindhoven 3:0 Willem II Tilburg
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 13.00 → now 12.00 |
| W2 | was 21.00 → now 19.00 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.