Excelsior Rotterdam — FC Twente Enschede: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
17.3%
Home win
Excelsior Rotterdam
X
21.5%
Draw
W2
61.1%
Away win
FC Twente Enschede
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X282.7%
Both teams to score
Yes62.3%
Totals 2.5
Over66.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.9% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 82.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Goal distribution model
Excelsior Rotterdam × FC Twente Enschede
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.4%
0:1
6.4%
0:2
8.4%
0:3
6.3%
0:4
3.6%
0:5
1.6%
1
1:0
2.8%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
9.7%
1:3
7.3%
1:4
4.1%
1:5
1.9%
2
2:0
2.2%
2:1
5.0%
2:2
5.6%
2:3
4.2%
2:4
2.4%
2:5
1.1%
3
3:0
0.8%
3:1
1.9%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.6%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.2%
4:1
0.6%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.1%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:29.7%
1:19.7%
0:28.4%
1:37.3%
0:16.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Excelsior Rotterdam
12th place · 12 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away For Sittard 0:1
- 16.10.2026 away Heerenveen 0:4
- 11.10.2026 home Groningen 1:5
- 19.09.2026 away Ajax 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
FC Twente Enschede
4th place · 20 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away AZ Alkmaar 2:0
- 18.10.2026 home Utrecht 1:2
- 10.10.2026 away For Sittard 1:1
- 20.09.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Den Haag 2:0
This season: Excelsior Rotterdam at home vs FC Twente Enschede away
| Metric | Excelsior Rotterdam · at home | FC Twente Enschede · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 2–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.02 | 1.80 |
| xG against per match | 1.85 | 0.99 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.25 | 5.80 |
| Corners per match | 3.75 | 6.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Excelsior Rotterdam wins1
Draws2
FC Twente Enschede wins3
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 24.01.2026 FC Twente Enschede 0:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 30.08.2025 Excelsior Rotterdam 1:0 FC Twente Enschede
- 10.02.2024 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:3 FC Twente Enschede
- 08.12.2023 FC Twente Enschede 4:2 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 01.04.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:0 FC Twente Enschede
- 31.08.2022 FC Twente Enschede 4:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 5.25 → now 5.00 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.10 |
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