FC Groningen — Sparta Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
56.4%
Home win
FC Groningen
X
22.4%
Draw
W2
21.2%
Away win
Sparta Rotterdam
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X78.8%
Both teams to score
Yes67.5%
Totals 2.5
Over69.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.8% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Goal distribution model
FC Groningen × Sparta Rotterdam
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.9%
0:1
2.5%
0:2
2.5%
0:3
1.1%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.9%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
5.6%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.9%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
5.2%
3:1
7.0%
3:2
4.7%
3:3
2.1%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.9%
4:1
3.9%
4:2
2.7%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.3%
5:1
1.8%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:19.5%
2:19.3%
3:17.0%
2:06.9%
2:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
FC Groningen
9th place · 15 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Nijmegen 2:2
- 18.10.2026 home Ajax 2:5
- 11.10.2026 away Excelsior 5:1
- 18.09.2026 home Zwolle 3:0
- 12.09.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 1:1
Sparta Rotterdam
14th place · 9 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Ajax 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Willem II 3:2
- 10.10.2026 away Go Ahead Eagles 3:3
- 19.09.2026 home Heerenveen 0:4
- 13.09.2026 away PSV Eindhoven 1:4
This season: FC Groningen at home vs Sparta Rotterdam away
| Metric | FC Groningen · at home | Sparta Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–2 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.20 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.72 | 2.18 |
| xG against per match | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| Corners per match | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Groningen wins1
Draws0
Sparta Rotterdam wins5
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 31.01.2026 Sparta Rotterdam 2:0 FC Groningen
- 19.10.2025 FC Groningen 0:2 Sparta Rotterdam
- 02.02.2025 Sparta Rotterdam 1:0 FC Groningen
- 09.11.2024 FC Groningen 1:0 Sparta Rotterdam
- 28.05.2023 FC Groningen 0:5 Sparta Rotterdam
- 17.09.2022 Sparta Rotterdam 2:1 FC Groningen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.55 → now 1.70 |
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.00 |
| W2 | was 5.00 → now 4.20 |
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