SC Freiburg — Werder Bremen: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.8% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home RB Leipzig 4:1
- 10.05.2026 away Hamburg 2:3
- 03.05.2026 home Wolfsburg 1:1
- 26.04.2026 away Dortmund 0:4
- 19.04.2026 home Heidenheim 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 home Dortmund 0:2
- 09.05.2026 away Hoffenheim 0:1
- 02.05.2026 home Augsburg 1:3
- 26.04.2026 away Stuttgart 1:1
- 18.04.2026 home Hamburg 3:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 SC Freiburg 1:0 Werder Bremen
- 20.09.2025 Werder Bremen 0:3 SC Freiburg
- 21.02.2025 SC Freiburg 5:0 Werder Bremen
- 05.10.2024 Werder Bremen 0:1 SC Freiburg
- 27.01.2024 Werder Bremen 3:1 SC Freiburg
- 26.08.2023 SC Freiburg 1:0 Werder Bremen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SC Freiburg have a slight edge over Werder Bremen in this Bundesliga meeting, although the balance of the match still points towards a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The hosts appear better placed to avoid defeat, with the available signal favouring SC Freiburg or a draw. That advantage is meaningful, but it does not remove the possibility of Werder Bremen taking control during periods of the game.
The expectation is for a medium-scoring match in which both teams are likely to score. The main scoreline indications are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting a range of plausible outcomes while keeping SC Freiburg marginally ahead in the assessment. Werder Bremen should have enough attacking threat to contribute to the match, but SC Freiburg’s home position gives them the stronger overall outlook.
What matters before kick-off
SC Freiburg's winning start to the season
SC Freiburg enter their Bundesliga opener on the back of three consecutive competitive victories, having defeated Motherwell 7–2 on aggregate in the Conference League play-offs and beaten Fortuna Düsseldorf 5–1 in the DFB-Pokal.
Werder Bremen's cup result
Werder Bremen prepared for their Bundesliga opening fixture with a comfortable 3–0 away victory against LSK Hansa in the first round of the DFB-Pokal.
SC Freiburg's recent H2H record
SC Freiburg have won each of their last four matches against Werder Bremen, scoring 10 goals and keeping clean sheets in all four encounters.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.