FC Augsburg — Schalke 04: Win probabilities, 30.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.4% / 18.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.8% / 64.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 30.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.05.2026 away Union Berlin 0:4
- 09.05.2026 home M'gladbach 3:1
- 02.05.2026 away Werder Bremen 3:1
- 25.04.2026 home Ein Frankfurt 1:1
- 18.04.2026 away Leverkusen 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.05.2026 home Braunschweig 1:0
- 09.05.2026 away Nurnberg 0:3
- 02.05.2026 home Fortuna Dusseldorf 1:0
- 26.04.2026 away Paderborn 3:2
- 19.04.2026 home Preußen Münster 4:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.03.2023 FC Augsburg 1:1 Schalke 04
- 02.10.2022 Schalke 04 2:3 FC Augsburg
- 11.04.2021 Schalke 04 1:0 FC Augsburg
- 13.12.2020 FC Augsburg 2:2 Schalke 04
- 24.05.2020 Schalke 04 0:3 FC Augsburg
- 03.11.2019 FC Augsburg 2:3 Schalke 04
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Augsburg have a slight edge over Schalke 04 in this Bundesliga meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the sides. The home advantage gives FC Augsburg a narrow foundation, but Schalke 04 remain well placed to make the match competitive and avoid being pushed into a purely defensive role.
The game is expected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, with both teams likely to score. That points towards an open but relatively balanced encounter rather than a match dominated by one side. A draw remains a credible possibility, while the overall balance gives FC Augsburg a small advantage in the result outlook. Schalke 04 have enough attacking potential within this assessment to keep the scoreline close, so the match may be decided by fine margins rather than sustained control from either team.
What matters before kick-off
Schalke 04's return to the Bundesliga
The Matchday 1 fixture of the 2026/27 Bundesliga season marks FC Schalke 04's return to Germany's top flight after earning promotion from the 2. Bundesliga.
DFB-Pokal victories ahead of the opener
Both teams enter the fixture following wins in the first round of the DFB-Pokal, with FC Augsburg defeating Energie Cottbus 2-0 and FC Schalke 04 securing a 5-2 victory over Hallescher FC.
Manuel Baum's past at Schalke
FC Augsburg head coach Manuel Baum previously served as head coach of FC Schalke 04 from September to December 2020.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.