SC Corinthians SP — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 19.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
56.4%
Home win
SC Corinthians SP
X
25.9%
Draw
W2
17.6%
Away win
EC Vitoria BA
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.4%
Both teams to score
No52.3%
Totals 2.5
Under53.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.4% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Goal distribution model
SC Corinthians SP × EC Vitoria BA
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.8%
0:1
5.7%
0:2
2.8%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
12.3%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
4.8%
1:3
1.4%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
11.3%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
4.1%
2:3
1.2%
2:4
0.2%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
6.4%
3:1
5.4%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
0.6%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
2.7%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:012.3%
1:112.3%
2:011.3%
2:19.6%
0:08.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.10.2026
SC Corinthians SP
16th place · 32 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 away Internacional 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Fluminense 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Santos 0:1
EC Vitoria BA
12th place · 36 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 20.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Mirassol 2:2
- 08.09.2026 home Gremio 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:2
This season: SC Corinthians SP at home vs EC Vitoria BA away
| Metric | SC Corinthians SP · at home | EC Vitoria BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–7 | 0–5–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.07 | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
SC Corinthians SP wins3
Draws3
EC Vitoria BA wins0
Goals per match2.17
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 19.04.2026 EC Vitoria BA 0:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 25.10.2025 EC Vitoria BA 0:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 01.06.2025 SC Corinthians SP 0:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 09.11.2024 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 SC Corinthians SP
- 05.07.2024 SC Corinthians SP 3:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 21.10.2018 EC Vitoria BA 2:2 SC Corinthians SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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