SC Braga — Gil Vicente Barcelos: Win probabilities, 19.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.9% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.6% / 8.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.4% / 72.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.10.2026
SC Braga
8th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Estoril 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Estrela 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Alverca 2:1
Gil Vicente Barcelos
7th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 away Moreirense 1:0
- 19.09.2026 home Maritimo 1:1
- 13.09.2026 away Benfica 1:3
- 06.09.2026 home Academico Viseu 0:1
- 30.08.2026 away Famalicao 0:0
This season: SC Braga at home vs Gil Vicente Barcelos away
| Metric | SC Braga · at home | Gil Vicente Barcelos · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.37 | 0.95 |
| xG against per match | 0.64 | 1.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.08.2026 SC Braga 0:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 14.02.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:1 SC Braga
- 14.09.2025 SC Braga 0:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 09.02.2025 SC Braga 2:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 01.09.2024 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:0 SC Braga
- 16.03.2024 SC Braga 2:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.57 → now 1.65 |
| X | was 3.80 → now 3.60 |
| W2 | was 6.00 → now 5.50 |
Match preview
SC Braga host Gil Vicente Barcelos at a stage of the season where the table separates them only on goal difference: both sides sit on twelve points from eight games, with the visitors seventh and the hosts eighth. Recent form is uneven on both sides, two wins in five for SC Braga and a single win in five for Gil Vicente Barcelos, so the context is more balanced than the venue alone suggests. Still, the underlying patterns point to a slight edge for the hosts.
The clearest signal comes from chance quality: at home this season, SC Braga create clearly more chances than they allow, while Gil Vicente Barcelos on the road allow clearly more chances than they create. The hosts have also taken two wins from four at home, matching the visitors' thin return of one win in four away. That combination gives SC Braga the moderate advantage reflected in the qualitative read.
The head-to-head record counsels caution. The six most recent meetings split evenly, two wins apiece and two draws, and the last encounter finished SC Braga 0-0 Gil Vicente Barcelos. A medium-scoring game with a narrow home lean looks the most coherent picture, with low scorelines firmly in play.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled league fixture
SC Braga host Gil Vicente in a postponed Round 2 Liga Portugal match. Heading into the game, both clubs sat tied on 11 points in the standings.
Braga squad availability news
SC Braga defender Sikou Niakaté remains sidelined with an Achilles tendon rupture and has yet to feature in the league this season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.