Estoril Praia — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.4% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Estoril Praia
18th place · 2 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 away Academico Viseu 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Casa Pia 1:2
- 14.09.2026 away Sp Braga 0:1
- 07.09.2026 home Arouca 0:0
- 31.08.2026 away Benfica 1:2
Moreirense FC
12th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Guimaraes 1:1
- 14.09.2026 home Maritimo 3:1
- 09.09.2026 home Benfica 0:4
- 04.09.2026 away Porto 1:2
This season: Estoril Praia at home vs Moreirense FC away
| Metric | Estoril Praia · at home | Moreirense FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–2 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.05 | 0.54 |
| xG against per match | 1.36 | 1.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 2.75 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.04.2026 Moreirense FC 1:0 Estoril Praia
- 07.12.2025 Estoril Praia 3:3 Moreirense FC
- 11.05.2025 Moreirense FC 2:2 Estoril Praia
- 28.12.2024 Estoril Praia 2:2 Moreirense FC
- 18.05.2024 Moreirense FC 2:1 Estoril Praia
- 13.01.2024 Estoril Praia 1:3 Moreirense FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.95 → now 1.83 |
| W2 | was 3.70 → now 4.00 |
Match preview
Estoril Praia enter their Liga Portugal meeting with Moreirense FC facing a difficult challenge to reverse a disappointing start to the season. The hosts sit 18th after eight matches, with only two points and no wins in their last five outings. Their home record offers little reassurance, as they have drawn twice and lost twice in four matches, scoring just two goals. Moreirense FC have also struggled for consistency, recording one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five games, but their stronger league position provides a more stable foundation.
Despite the difference in league standings, Estoril Praia have a slight edge in this matchup. Moreirense FC have conceded seven goals in four away matches and have allowed considerably more chances than they create on the road, giving the hosts an opportunity to find attacking openings. However, Estoril Praia have scored only three goals across their last five matches, and their own home performances suggest that converting chances remains a concern.
The historical meetings point towards a competitive contest, with three draws in the last six encounters and both teams scoring in five of them. Moreirense FC won the most recent meeting by a narrow margin, but the current matchup looks more balanced than that result alone suggests. A medium-scoring game is a reasonable expectation, with Estoril Praia holding a modest advantage but a draw remaining a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Maracas suspended for Moreirense
Moreirense defender Maracas is suspended for the match against Estoril Praia. Head coach Vasco Botelho da Costa noted that the squad has options available to replace him.
Estoril bottom of the table ahead of kickoff
Estoril Praia sit at the bottom of the Liga Portugal table with just two points. Moreirense head coach Vasco Botelho da Costa highlighted that Estoril's squad quality is higher than their league standing suggests.
Moreirense unbeaten streak against Estoril
Moreirense FC enter the match on a six-game unbeaten streak in head-to-head encounters against Estoril Praia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.