Nacional da Madeira — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 33.4% |
| 12 | 78.6% | |
| X2 | 88.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026
Nacional da Madeira
17th place · 4 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 away Rio Ave 2:3
- 19.09.2026 home Famalicao 0:4
- 12.09.2026 home Alverca 1:3
- 05.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Estrela 2:3
SC Braga
8th place · 12 pts after 9Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.10.2026 home Gil Vicente 1:2
- 09.10.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Estoril 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Estrela 1:2
This season: Nacional da Madeira at home vs SC Braga away
| Metric | Nacional da Madeira · at home | SC Braga · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–3 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.59 | 1.22 |
| xG against per match | 1.38 | 0.72 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 SC Braga
- 28.09.2025 SC Braga 0:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 21.02.2025 SC Braga 1:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 20.09.2024 Nacional da Madeira 0:3 SC Braga
- 28.02.2021 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 SC Braga
- 17.10.2020 SC Braga 2:1 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 6.00 → now 7.00 |
| X | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 1.55 → now 1.45 |
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira face a difficult challenge against SC Braga in
What matters before kick-off
Managerial change at SC Braga
Franclim Carvalho took charge of SC Braga ahead of their match against Nacional, with this game marking his league debut at the helm.
SC Braga won in the Conference League ahead of the fixture
On Thursday, SC Braga defeated Gent 2-0 in the UEFA Conference League, ending a three-match losing streak across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.