Match intelligence

Sporting CP — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 25.10.2026

League: Liga Portugal (Portugal) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

× Prediction missed
Sporting CP1
:
2Academico de Viseu FC
Locked signal W1 Probability 80.0% Verdict Miss
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 80.0% Home win Sporting CP
X 13.0% Draw
W2 7.0% Away win Academico de Viseu FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X93.0%
Both teams to score
Yes53.4%
Totals 2.5
Over72.7%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X93.0%
1287.0%
X220.0%
Both teams to scoreYes/No53.4% / 46.6%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.3% / 2.7%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 89.4% / 10.6%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 72.7% / 27.3%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 52.1% / 47.9%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 32.7% / 67.3%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 18.1% / 81.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Sporting CP × Academico de Viseu FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.7%
0:1 1.5%
0:2 0.8%
0:3 0.2%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 6.4%
1:1 5.9%
1:2 2.3%
1:3 0.6%
1:4 0.1%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 10.0%
2:1 8.2%
2:2 3.4%
2:3 0.9%
2:4 0.2%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 9.9%
3:1 8.1%
3:2 3.3%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.2%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 7.3%
4:1 6.0%
4:2 2.4%
4:3 0.7%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 4.3%
5:1 3.5%
5:2 1.4%
5:3 0.4%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
2:010.0%
3:09.9%
2:18.2%
3:18.1%
4:07.3%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 25.10.2026

Sporting CP

3rd place · 18 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 09.10.2026 away Sp Braga 3:1
  • 19.09.2026 home Arouca 2:2
  • 13.09.2026 away Famalicao 1:1
  • 05.09.2026 home Nacional 2:0
  • 28.08.2026 away Rio Ave 4:0

Academico de Viseu FC

7th place · 14 pts after 8

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 10.10.2026 home Estoril 2:1
  • 20.09.2026 away Estrela 2:0
  • 12.09.2026 home Guimaraes 2:1
  • 06.09.2026 away Gil Vicente 1:0
  • 29.08.2026 home Porto 0:3

This season: Sporting CP at home vs Academico de Viseu FC away

Metric Sporting CP · at home Academico de Viseu FC · away
Matches44
W–D–L3–1–02–2–0
Goals scored per match2.501.75
Goals conceded per match1.251.00
xG for per match1.881.47
xG against per match0.931.78
Shots on target per match5.254.00
Corners per match6.002.50
Over 2.5 goals75%50%
Both teams scored75%50%

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

X was 6.00 → now 6.25
W2 was 13.00 → now 11.00
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Sporting CP look clearly stronger heading into their Liga Portugal meeting with Academico de Viseu FC, with a consistent recent record and a solid position in the league providing a strong foundation. Sporting CP have won three and drawn two of their last five matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding only four. Sitting third with 18 points from eight games, they have shown both attacking quality and defensive stability. Their home form reinforces that picture: three wins and one draw from four matches, with 10 goals scored, although five conceded suggests there can still be opportunities for opponents.

Academico de Viseu FC arrive in encouraging form themselves, having won four of their last five matches. They have scored seven goals and conceded five across that run, while their seventh-place position with 14 points from eight games reflects a competitive start to the campaign. Their away record is also respectable, with two wins and two draws from four matches, seven goals scored and four conceded. This makes them a credible opponent rather than an easy prospect, particularly given their ability to collect points on the road.

The overall balance still favours Sporting CP. Their stronger chance creation at home and greater attacking output suggest they can control significant periods of the contest. A match with several goals is plausible, while Academico de Viseu FC may have opportunities to contribute, though their scoring remains uncertain.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Availability

Zeno Debast ruled out for Sporting CP

Sporting CP manager Rui Borges confirmed that defender Zeno Debast will miss the match against Académico de Viseu due to injury.

Match fact

Strong away support for Académico de Viseu

More than 850 Académico de Viseu supporters booked tickets to travel to Estádio José Alvalade, prompting Sporting CP to open an additional away sector.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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