FC Alverca SAD — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

FC Alverca SAD have a slight edge heading into their Liga Portugal meeting with FC Arouca, supported by a stronger recent scoring record and the advantage of playing at home. They have won three of their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding five, which points to a productive attack and a generally solid defensive return. However, their home performances have been less convincing, with one win, two draws and one defeat in four matches. Their chances created and allowed have also been roughly level, suggesting that control of the game may not come easily.

FC Arouca arrive in reasonably steady form, with two wins, two draws and one defeat across their last five outings. They sit sixth with 14 points, three ahead of FC Alverca SAD, who are ninth with 11. Nevertheless, FC Arouca have struggled to establish a clear advantage away from home, winning once in four matches and scoring only three goals. Their tendency to allow more chances than they create on the road could give the hosts opportunities to make their attacking form count. The previous meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for FC Alverca SAD, although the overall head-to-head record is balanced. A competitive, medium-scoring contest looks likely, with FC Alverca SAD holding a narrow advantage but FC Arouca capable of taking a point.