Vitoria SC Guimaraes — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 23.10.2026

Vitoria SC Guimaraes have a moderate but meaningful edge over Maritimo Madeira, particularly given the visitors’ recent defensive difficulties and the hosts’ stronger underlying chance creation at home. However, Vitoria SC Guimaraes have struggled to turn their performances into results, recording no wins in their last five matches, with two draws and three defeats. They have scored just two goals and conceded six during that run. Their home record is somewhat more encouraging, with one win and two draws from four matches, alongside only two goals conceded.

Maritimo Madeira arrive in similarly poor form, having lost four of their last five matches and drawn the other. They have conceded 11 goals while scoring four, highlighting a defensive vulnerability that could be significant against a home side that creates clearly more chances than it allows. Although Maritimo Madeira sit higher in the league table, with eight points compared with Vitoria SC Guimaraes’ five, their recent performances offer limited reassurance. The historical matchup also favours the hosts: Vitoria SC Guimaraes have won five of the six recorded meetings, including a 2-1 victory in the last encounter in 2023. Overall, Vitoria SC Guimaraes have the clearer path to victory, though their own inconsistent results make a controlled, relatively competitive contest a reasonable expectation.