Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 24.10.2026

Estrela Amadora enter this Liga Portugal fixture with a slight edge over Casa Pia Lisbon, although their recent performances suggest a competitive encounter rather than a straightforward home advantage. Estrela Amadora have collected 10 points from eight matches and sit 10th in the standings, while Casa Pia Lisbon are 17th with four points. Both teams have won only once in their last five matches, but Casa Pia Lisbon have struggled more in front of goal, scoring three times compared with Estrela Amadora’s seven. The hosts also have a recent head-to-head advantage, having won four of their six meetings, including a 4-0 victory in 2026.

However, Estrela Amadora’s home record offers limited reassurance. They have won once, drawn twice and lost once in four home matches, conceding seven goals. Casa Pia Lisbon have also shown some resilience away from home, with one win and one draw in four outings, despite scoring only twice. Both sides tend to allow more chances than they create, which points to potential defensive vulnerabilities on either side. A medium-scoring match appears plausible, with Estrela Amadora better placed to take something from the contest. A narrow home win or a draw looks consistent with the overall balance, while the possibility of goals from both teams remains uncertain.