Santa Clara Azores — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 26.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 30.3% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 88.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.5% / 17.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.6% / 39.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.10.2026
Santa Clara Azores
4th place · 18 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
- 20.09.2026 home Sp Braga 0:0
- 13.09.2026 away Arouca 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Rio Ave 4:0
- 29.08.2026 away Alverca 1:1
SL Benfica
2nd place · 19 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.10.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Porto 1:3
- 13.09.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:1
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
This season: Santa Clara Azores at home vs SL Benfica away
| Metric | Santa Clara Azores · at home | SL Benfica · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–0 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.41 | 2.05 |
| xG against per match | 0.78 | 0.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.02.2026 Santa Clara Azores 1:2 SL Benfica
- 12.09.2025 SL Benfica 1:1 Santa Clara Azores
- 15.02.2025 Santa Clara Azores 0:1 SL Benfica
- 14.09.2024 SL Benfica 4:1 Santa Clara Azores
- 27.05.2023 SL Benfica 3:0 Santa Clara Azores
- 21.01.2023 Santa Clara Azores 0:3 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 8.50 → now 7.50 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
Match preview
Santa Clara Azores enter this Liga Portugal meeting in strong form, having won three and drawn two of their last five matches without a defeat. They have also been solid at home, recording two wins and two draws in four games while conceding just twice. Their fourth-place position, with 18 points from eight matches, reflects a consistent start to the season. These numbers suggest that SL Benfica will face a disciplined opponent capable of creating more chances than it allows on home soil.
However, SL Benfica have a slight overall advantage in league position and a stronger recent attacking record. They sit second with 19 points and have won four of their last five matches, scoring 13 goals in that period. Their away performances have been particularly productive, with three wins from four games and 15 goals scored. That attacking output gives the visitors a clear edge, although Santa Clara Azores' defensive record means the hosts should not be underestimated.
The head-to-head record further favours SL Benfica, who have won five of the six previous meetings, including a 2-1 victory in 2026. A moderately confident away win is the main expectation, with a medium-scoring contest appearing plausible. Whether both teams score remains uncertain, given the hosts' defensive solidity and the visitors' attacking strength.
What matters before kick-off
Benfica's recent match
Benfica enter the Liga Portugal matchday nine fixture following a 4-1 away victory over Cypriot side Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League.
Benfica squad update
Benfica forward Jhon Durán returned to the squad, while Daniel Banjaqui, Enzo Barrenechea, Leandro Barreiro, Jakub Kaminski, and Jaden Umeh were ruled out through injury.
Head-to-head record
Benfica remain unbeaten against Santa Clara across their last ten head-to-head encounters in all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.