San Diego FC — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
- 20.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:3
- 16.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Minnesota United 1:5
- 20.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
This season: San Diego FC at home vs San Jose Earthquakes away
| Metric | San Diego FC · at home | San Jose Earthquakes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–3 | 6–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 05.04.2026 San Jose Earthquakes 3:0 San Diego FC
- 28.09.2025 San Diego FC 0:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 18.08.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 1:2 San Diego FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Diego FC have a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with meaningful uncertainty. The scoring profile points toward an open match rather than a cautious, low-tempo affair, with enough attacking potential on both sides to create chances throughout.
Both San Diego FC and San Jose Earthquakes are likely to score, making the match difficult to assess solely through home advantage. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 3:1, which reflects a narrow advantage for San Diego FC but also leaves room for San Jose Earthquakes to remain competitive. Overall, the indicators favour a high-scoring game in which both teams should have opportunities, with San Diego FC marginally better placed to take control.
What matters before kick-off
San Diego FC recent result
On September 5, 2026, San Diego FC fell 1-0 away against Orlando City SC. The defeat snapped San Diego FC's two-match winning streak in MLS play.
San Jose Earthquakes recent result
On September 5, 2026, San Jose Earthquakes played out a 1-1 road draw against Austin FC. Beau Leroux put San Jose ahead in the eighth minute before Austin equalized late in stoppage time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.