San Diego FC — San Jose Earthquakes: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.5% / 10.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.3% / 49.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
San Diego FC have a slight edge over San Jose Earthquakes in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with meaningful uncertainty. The scoring profile points toward an open match rather than a cautious, low-tempo affair, with enough attacking potential on both sides to create chances throughout.
Both San Diego FC and San Jose Earthquakes are likely to score, making the match difficult to assess solely through home advantage. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 3:1, which reflects a narrow advantage for San Diego FC but also leaves room for San Jose Earthquakes to remain competitive. Overall, the indicators favour a high-scoring game in which both teams should have opportunities, with San Diego FC marginally better placed to take control.
What matters before kick-off
San Diego FC recent result
On September 5, 2026, San Diego FC fell 1-0 away against Orlando City SC. The defeat snapped San Diego FC's two-match winning streak in MLS play.
San Jose Earthquakes recent result
On September 5, 2026, San Jose Earthquakes played out a 1-1 road draw against Austin FC. Beau Leroux put San Jose ahead in the eighth minute before Austin equalized late in stoppage time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.