Portland Timbers — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers and Saint Louis City SC meet in MLS in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in an evenly matched contest. That points toward a game where control may shift between the teams rather than settle decisively with one of them.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking outlook. The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, while both Portland Timbers and Saint Louis City SC are considered likely to find the net. That could lead to a demanding defensive task for both sides, particularly if the tempo rises early. A draw with goals is one plausible scenario, although a narrow victory for either team also fits the overall profile. The key question may be which side manages its attacking opportunities more efficiently without leaving too much space in transition.
What matters before kick-off
Match following win over Minnesota
The Portland Timbers return to action at Providence Park against St. Louis CITY SC following a weekend victory over Minnesota United.
Player availability report
The official MLS availability report lists Alexander Aravena, Brandon Bye, Jose Caicedo, Zac McGraw, and Juan Mosquera as out for Portland, while Kyle Hiebert and Célio Pompeu are out for St. Louis CITY.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.