Portland Timbers — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.9% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 61.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Minnesota United 5:4
- 30.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:2
- 23.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home San Diego FC 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
- 31.08.2026 home FC Dallas 3:3
- 23.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 2:1
- 20.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 3:1
This season: Portland Timbers at home vs Saint Louis City SC away
| Metric | Portland Timbers · at home | Saint Louis City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–3 | 4–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.42 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.83 | 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 92% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.07.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:1 Portland Timbers
- 09.06.2025 Portland Timbers 2:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 25.08.2024 Portland Timbers 4:4 Saint Louis City SC
- 09.06.2024 Saint Louis City SC 0:0 Portland Timbers
- 30.04.2023 Saint Louis City SC 1:2 Portland Timbers
- 12.03.2023 Portland Timbers 1:2 Saint Louis City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Portland Timbers and Saint Louis City SC meet in MLS in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in an evenly matched contest. That points toward a game where control may shift between the teams rather than settle decisively with one of them.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking outlook. The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, while both Portland Timbers and Saint Louis City SC are considered likely to find the net. That could lead to a demanding defensive task for both sides, particularly if the tempo rises early. A draw with goals is one plausible scenario, although a narrow victory for either team also fits the overall profile. The key question may be which side manages its attacking opportunities more efficiently without leaving too much space in transition.
What matters before kick-off
Match following win over Minnesota
The Portland Timbers return to action at Providence Park against St. Louis CITY SC following a weekend victory over Minnesota United.
Player availability report
The official MLS availability report lists Alexander Aravena, Brandon Bye, Jose Caicedo, Zac McGraw, and Juan Mosquera as out for Portland, while Kyle Hiebert and Célio Pompeu are out for St. Louis CITY.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.