Los Angeles FC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 82.8% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Los Angeles FC enter this MLS meeting with the clearer overall profile, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the home advantage should be treated as a meaningful edge rather than a definitive outcome. New York Red Bulls remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively to the pressure of playing away from home.
The available assessment points toward an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That combination should create an active match with opportunities at both ends, although Los Angeles FC are expected to carry the stronger attacking influence. New York Red Bulls may still have a route into the game through their own scoring threat, meaning the hosts could need to manage the defensive phases carefully. Overall, the balance favours Los Angeles FC, with a narrow home win appearing more consistent with the pre-match indicators than either a draw or an away victory.
What matters before kick-off
LAFC player status update
According to LAFC's player status report, Thomas Hasal, Ryan Porteous, and Timothy Tillman are ruled out for the match against New York Red Bulls due to injuries. Eddie Segura is listed as questionable.
Recent form and winless runs
Los Angeles FC enter the match on a six-game winless streak in MLS with four draws. New York Red Bulls are also winless in their last five league games following a 0-0 draw against Seattle Sounders.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.