Los Angeles FC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.2% |
| 12 | 82.8% | |
| X2 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.6% / 36.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away DC United 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home San Diego FC 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 23.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Nashville SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 1:2
This season: Los Angeles FC at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | Los Angeles FC · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–3 | 3–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.92 | 2.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 82% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 21.04.2024 Los Angeles FC 2:2 New York Red Bulls
- 26.06.2022 Los Angeles FC 2:0 New York Red Bulls
- 12.08.2019 Los Angeles FC 4:2 New York Red Bulls
- 05.08.2018 New York Red Bulls 2:1 Los Angeles FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles FC enter this MLS meeting with the clearer overall profile, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the home advantage should be treated as a meaningful edge rather than a definitive outcome. New York Red Bulls remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively to the pressure of playing away from home.
The available assessment points toward an open, high-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net. That combination should create an active match with opportunities at both ends, although Los Angeles FC are expected to carry the stronger attacking influence. New York Red Bulls may still have a route into the game through their own scoring threat, meaning the hosts could need to manage the defensive phases carefully. Overall, the balance favours Los Angeles FC, with a narrow home win appearing more consistent with the pre-match indicators than either a draw or an away victory.
What matters before kick-off
LAFC player status update
According to LAFC's player status report, Thomas Hasal, Ryan Porteous, and Timothy Tillman are ruled out for the match against New York Red Bulls due to injuries. Eddie Segura is listed as questionable.
Recent form and winless runs
Los Angeles FC enter the match on a six-game winless streak in MLS with four draws. New York Red Bulls are also winless in their last five league games following a 0-0 draw against Seattle Sounders.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.