Match intelligence

Sabah Masazir — Borussia Dortmund: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026

League: UEFA Champions League · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Sabah Masazir1
:
2Borussia Dortmund
Locked signal W2 Probability 76.3% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 9.9% Home win Sabah Masazir
X 13.8% Draw
W2 76.3% Away win Borussia Dortmund
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X290.1%
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
Totals 2.5
Over69.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X23.7%
1286.2%
X290.1%
Both teams to scoreYes/No53.8% / 46.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 97.5% / 2.5%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 86.8% / 13.2%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 69.1% / 30.9%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 47.8% / 52.2%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 28.7% / 71.3%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 15.1% / 84.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Sabah Masazir × Borussia Dortmund
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 2.5%
0:1 8.0%
0:2 10.3%
0:3 9.2%
0:4 6.2%
0:5 3.4%
1
1:0 2.8%
1:1 6.3%
1:2 8.9%
1:3 8.0%
1:4 5.4%
1:5 2.9%
2
2:0 1.1%
2:1 2.9%
2:2 3.9%
2:3 3.5%
2:4 2.4%
2:5 1.3%
3
3:0 0.3%
3:1 0.8%
3:2 1.1%
3:3 1.0%
3:4 0.7%
3:5 0.4%
4
4:0 0.1%
4:1 0.2%
4:2 0.2%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.0%
5:2 0.0%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:210.3%
0:39.2%
1:28.9%
1:38.0%
0:18.0%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 20.10.2026

Sabah Masazir

Last 4 matches · latest first

  • 13.10.2026 home Slavia Prague 2:0
  • 10.09.2026 away Manchester United 0:4
  • 11.08.2026 home AGF Aarhus 4:0
  • 28.07.2026 away Kuopion Palloseura 2:0

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 away Union Berlin 0:0
  • 09.10.2026 home Werder Bremen 2:2
  • 19.09.2026 away Stuttgart 1:0
  • 12.09.2026 home Paderborn 3:0
  • 05.09.2026 away Hoffenheim 3:2

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Sabah Masazir face a difficult test against Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League, with the visitors holding a clear advantage on recent form. Sabah Masazir have won three of their last four matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4. That record suggests the hosts have been effective going forward while maintaining a reasonably solid defensive structure. However, Borussia Dortmund arrive with an equally strong winning record and greater consistency, having avoided defeat in their last five matches.

Borussia Dortmund have recorded three wins and two draws across those five games, scoring 9 goals and conceding 4. Their ability to combine regular scoring with defensive stability gives them a strong foundation for this encounter. While Sabah Masazir have demonstrated that they can produce positive results, Borussia Dortmund appear better positioned to control the match and create the more decisive attacking moments. The contrast in recent results points towards a clear advantage for the visitors, although the hosts' scoring record suggests they should not be dismissed entirely.

A relatively open contest is a reasonable expectation, with Borussia Dortmund likely to carry the greater attacking threat. A 0-2 or 1-2 scoreline would reflect the visitors' stronger overall position, while a 0-3 result is also consistent with the expected balance of the match.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Karetsas sidelined with ligament injury

Borussia Dortmund midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas suffered a foot ligament injury and was ruled out for the Champions League match against Sabah.

Match fact

First official head-to-head meeting

The matchday 3 fixture in the Champions League marks the first-ever competitive head-to-head meeting between Sabah and Borussia Dortmund.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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