Fenerbahce Istanbul — Slavia Prague: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.8% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 35.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.1% / 12.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.60 → now 1.50 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 5.25 → now 5.50 |
Match preview
Fenerbahce Istanbul have a slight edge heading into their UEFA Champions League meeting with Slavia Prague, although the balance of the contest suggests a competitive match rather than a clear home advantage. The hosts have the stronger overall outlook, but the difference between the teams is not substantial enough to dismiss the visitors’ chances. Fenerbahce Istanbul should look to make the most of playing at home, while Slavia Prague have a realistic opportunity to challenge them and keep the result uncertain.
The match has the potential to produce goals at both ends, with neither side clearly favoured to keep a clean sheet. A high-scoring contest is a reasonable expectation, particularly given the possibility of both teams finding opportunities in attack. However, the prospect of goals does not necessarily mean the match will be one-sided, and Slavia Prague could remain competitive even if Fenerbahce Istanbul establish an advantage.
The overall assessment gives Fenerbahce Istanbul a moderate edge, with a narrow home victory among the plausible outcomes. A draw also remains a credible scenario, reflecting the limited separation between the sides. Fenerbahce Istanbul have the more favourable outlook, but Slavia Prague should not be discounted, and the match could ultimately be decided by fine margins.
What matters before kick-off
Head-to-Head History
Fenerbahce and Slavia Prague have previously met in European competitions, with their last head-to-head meeting occurring in November 2024 in the UEFA Europa League, where Fenerbahce won 2-1.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.