FC Porto — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.7% |
| 12 | 80.1% | |
| X2 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.8% / 41.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.10.2026 away Maritimo 2:1
- 20.09.2026 home Benfica 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Casa Pia 4:1
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.10.2026 away Den Haag 1:2
- 09.10.2026 home Heerenveen 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.55 → now 1.50 |
| W2 | was 5.00 → now 5.75 |
Match preview
FC Porto enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with PSV Eindhoven in stronger recent form, having won their last five matches. Their attacking output has been particularly encouraging, with 14 goals scored and only 4 conceded across that run. This combination of consistent results and defensive stability gives FC Porto a clear advantage heading into the contest, although maintaining that level against PSV Eindhoven will require another disciplined performance.
PSV Eindhoven have shown attacking potential of their own, scoring 12 goals in their last five matches, but their record is less convincing. Three wins and two defeats over that period highlight a degree of inconsistency, while 7 goals conceded suggest that defensive control could be a key challenge against an in-form opponent. Their ability to contribute offensively makes this a potentially competitive encounter, even if their recent results leave them at a disadvantage.
Overall, FC Porto have the stronger case based on current form and the balance between goals scored and conceded. The hosts should be capable of creating opportunities, while PSV Eindhoven have demonstrated enough attacking productivity to threaten in response. A match with several scoring chances looks plausible, and both teams could find the net. FC Porto hold the clearer edge, but the outcome will depend on how effectively they convert their recent momentum into control of the match.
What matters before kick-off
Ricardo Pepi unavailable for PSV against Porto
PSV striker Ricardo Pepi was left out of the traveling squad for the UEFA Champions League match against FC Porto. The forward remains sidelined as he recovers from an injury suffered in a September Eredivisie fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.