Liverpool FC — Villarreal CF: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026

Liverpool FC enter this UEFA Champions League fixture with a clear edge over Villarreal CF, supported by a stronger recent record and a positive head-to-head history. Liverpool FC have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, while Villarreal CF have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats over the same period. The hosts have scored five goals in those games, compared with seven for the visitors, suggesting that Villarreal CF remain capable of posing an attacking threat despite their less consistent results. The overall balance favours Liverpool FC, although the evidence points to a competitive contest rather than a straightforward home performance.

The historical meetings also support the hosts' position. Liverpool FC have won three of the four previous encounters, with Villarreal CF claiming one victory. Their most recent meeting ended in a 3-2 win for Liverpool FC in 2022, illustrating the potential for an open contest between these sides. With Villarreal CF having scored seven goals across their last five matches, the visitors have shown enough attacking output to make their presence felt, even as their recent defeats raise questions about consistency. Liverpool FC are the stronger side on the available evidence, with a moderate degree of confidence in the home advantage. A match featuring chances at both ends is a reasonable expectation, with Liverpool FC better placed to control the overall outcome.