Match intelligence

AS Roma — SK Slovan Bratislava: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026

League: UEFA Champions League · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
AS Roma4
:
0SK Slovan Bratislava
Locked signal W1 Probability 89.8% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 89.8% Home win AS Roma
X 7.4% Draw
W2 2.9% Away win SK Slovan Bratislava
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X97.4%
Both teams to score
No56.0%
Totals 2.5
Over79.9%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X97.4%
1293.1%
X29.5%
Both teams to scoreYes/No44.0% / 56.0%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 98.5% / 1.5%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 92.8% / 7.2%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 79.9% / 20.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 61.7% / 38.3%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 42.3% / 57.7%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 25.7% / 74.3%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

AS Roma × SK Slovan Bratislava
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 1.5%
0:1 0.7%
0:2 0.3%
0:3 0.0%
0:4 0.0%
0:5 0.0%
1
1:0 5.0%
1:1 3.2%
1:2 0.9%
1:3 0.2%
1:4 0.0%
1:5 0.0%
2
2:0 9.4%
2:1 5.6%
2:2 1.7%
2:3 0.3%
2:4 0.1%
2:5 0.0%
3
3:0 11.5%
3:1 6.9%
3:2 2.1%
3:3 0.4%
3:4 0.1%
3:5 0.0%
4
4:0 10.6%
4:1 6.3%
4:2 1.9%
4:3 0.4%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 7.8%
5:1 4.7%
5:2 1.4%
5:3 0.3%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
3:011.5%
4:010.6%
2:09.4%
5:07.8%
3:16.9%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 20.10.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 17.10.2026 home Genoa 2:0
  • 11.10.2026 away Como 0:0
  • 19.09.2026 home Inter 2:2
  • 14.09.2026 away Torino 2:0
  • 05.09.2026 home Atalanta 2:1

SK Slovan Bratislava

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 14.10.2026 home VfB Stuttgart 0:3
  • 09.09.2026 away Paris Saint-Germain 1:6
  • 11.08.2026 home Mjallby AIF 2:0
  • 04.08.2026 away Mjallby AIF 2:1
  • 29.07.2026 home FC Iberia 1999 1:1

Head-to-head

No previous meetings found in the available data.

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

Odds movement

W1 was 1.14 → now 1.09
X was 8.50 → now 10.00
W2 was 15.00 → now 23.00
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

AS Roma enter this UEFA Champions League meeting with SK Slovan Bratislava as the clearly stronger side, supported by a more consistent recent record and a better defensive balance. The hosts have won three and drawn two of their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding only three. That combination points to a team capable of controlling the game while limiting the opposition's opportunities. Their unbeaten run provides a solid foundation, particularly against visitors whose recent performances have been less reliable.

SK Slovan Bratislava have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches. Although six goals scored show that they can contribute in attack, eleven conceded highlight a defensive vulnerability that AS Roma may be able to exploit. The contrast between the teams is particularly clear at the back, where the hosts have been considerably more secure. If AS Roma establish control early, their attacking quality and defensive stability could make it difficult for SK Slovan Bratislava to recover. The overall expectation is a relatively open match with opportunities for the home side to create several scoring chances. AS Roma have a clear advantage entering the contest, while the visitors will need a more disciplined defensive performance than their recent record suggests to keep the match competitive.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Team news

Roma Team News

AS Roma enter the match without injured trio Paulo Dybala, Manu Koné, and Bryan Cristante.

Match fact

Head-to-head history

The only previous meetings between AS Roma and SK Slovan Bratislava took place in the 2011/12 Europa League play-offs, where Slovan won 2-1 on aggregate.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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