VfB Stuttgart — Atletico Madrid: Win probabilities, 20.10.2026

VfB Stuttgart face a difficult challenge against Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, with the visitors arriving in considerably stronger recent form. VfB Stuttgart have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding five. Their results suggest a team capable of contributing in attack but struggling to maintain consistent performances. Against an opponent who has been particularly effective at both ends of the pitch, the hosts will need greater stability to control the contest.

Atletico Madrid have won all five of their last five matches, scoring twelve goals and conceding just two. This combination of attacking productivity and defensive solidity gives them a clear advantage in current form, although playing away from home remains a different challenge. Their recent performances suggest they have the tools to create scoring opportunities while limiting the opposition's chances. VfB Stuttgart should still have opportunities to threaten, particularly if they can take advantage of their home setting and turn attacking moments into goals.

Overall, Atletico Madrid hold a moderate but meaningful edge, while VfB Stuttgart have enough attacking potential to make the match competitive. A relatively open contest, with both teams finding the net, is a reasonable expectation. The main question is whether the hosts can disrupt Atletico Madrid's momentum or whether the visitors' greater consistency will prove decisive.