Red Bull Bragantino SP — Cruzeiro EC MG: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.7%
Home win
Red Bull Bragantino SP
X
26.8%
Draw
W2
30.5%
Away win
Cruzeiro EC MG
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.2%
Both teams to score
Yes64.1%
Totals 2.5
Over60.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.5% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.9% / 39.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.5% / 61.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.0% / 79.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
Goal distribution model
Red Bull Bragantino SP × Cruzeiro EC MG
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.0%
0:1
4.4%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
5.7%
1:1
12.3%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.3%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.1%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
3.7%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.5%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.3%
2:19.1%
1:27.6%
2:26.5%
2:06.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Red Bull Bragantino SP
10th place · 37 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 03.10.2026 away Atletico-MG 0:1
- 20.09.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:2
- 13.09.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 05.09.2026 home Bahia 2:3
Cruzeiro EC MG
5th place · 48 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Vitoria 3:1
- 13.09.2026 away Santos 1:2
- 06.09.2026 home Athletico-PR 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Vasco 1:3
This season: Red Bull Bragantino SP at home vs Cruzeiro EC MG away
| Metric | Red Bull Bragantino SP · at home | Cruzeiro EC MG · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–5 | 6–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.07 | 1.71 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Red Bull Bragantino SP wins1
Draws2
Cruzeiro EC MG wins3
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 12.04.2026 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 22.09.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 21.04.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 01.12.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 13.07.2024 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 03.09.2023 Cruzeiro EC MG 0:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.20 → now 3.10 |
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