Chapecoense SC — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 12.10.2026
Full time
✓ Prediction hit
Final result
Chapecoense SC1
:
4CA Paranaense PR
Locked signal X2
Probability 77.4%
Verdict Hit
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
22.6%
Home win
Chapecoense SC
X
26.7%
Draw
W2
50.6%
Away win
CA Paranaense PR
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
X277.7%
Both teams to score
Yes59.5%
Totals 2.5
Over58.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.0% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 77.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Goal distribution model
Chapecoense SC × CA Paranaense PR
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.4%
0:1
7.6%
0:2
8.4%
0:3
5.2%
0:4
2.4%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
4.2%
1:1
12.0%
1:2
9.8%
1:3
6.0%
1:4
2.8%
1:5
1.0%
2
2:0
3.3%
2:1
6.1%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
1.3%
3:1
2.4%
3:2
2.2%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
0.4%
4:1
0.7%
4:2
0.6%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.1%
5:1
0.2%
5:2
0.1%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.0%
1:29.8%
0:28.4%
0:17.6%
0:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.10.2026
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 18 pts after 28Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 away Vitoria 0:4
- 19.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 12.09.2026 home Internacional 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Corinthians 2:1
- 30.08.2026 away Gremio 1:3
CA Paranaense PR
4th place · 50 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Atletico-MG 2:2
- 20.09.2026 home Bahia 2:1
- 12.09.2026 away Coritiba 3:3
- 06.09.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 30.08.2026 home Fluminense 3:3
This season: Chapecoense SC at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | Chapecoense SC · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–6 | 5–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.23 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 57% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Chapecoense SC wins1
Draws4
CA Paranaense PR wins1
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 12.04.2026 CA Paranaense PR 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 13.10.2021 Chapecoense SC 1:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 28.06.2021 CA Paranaense PR 2:2 Chapecoense SC
- 29.09.2019 CA Paranaense PR 1:1 Chapecoense SC
- 05.05.2019 Chapecoense SC 1:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 14.09.2018 Chapecoense SC 2:1 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.60 |
| W2 | was 1.95 → now 1.85 |
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